Forecasting demand fluctuations of public bus transit during special events and adverse weather conditions through smartcard data analysis
Mar-2025
Study into the impact special and weather events have on urban transport demand, making use of smart card data from 13 municipal districts in 2021 and 2022. Research found that cultural and demographic factors heavily influenced demand, implying that passenger behaviour is intricate and localised. Additionally, weather events such as rain or snow fall caused demand reductions of 8% and 37% respectively.
A stacked BiLSTM based approach for bus passenger demand forecasting using smartcard data
Jan-2024
Report highlights the importance of demand forecasting, noting that the public transport sector is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in consumer demand for perishable commodities. The researchers propose a method of demand forecasting for passenger transport which attains a success rate of 98.45%.
Bus line shift behaviour: Evidence of influential factors based on smartcard data
Nov-2023
Paper makes use of smart card datasets to analyse factors that influence the behaviour in relation to bus line shift, focused on a case study of the public transport network in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Research indicates that users are generally inclined to bus line shifts than using the same lines, with such changes ocurring more frequently during late hours and inter-peak periods compared to morning and afternoon peak hours. Additionally, regular users are more likely to change lines than occasional users, and trips with discounts and smart card usage for transfers on trips home tend to involve different lines. The study considers several policy measures for mitigating passenger discomfort associated with changing bus lines.
Measuring the influence of bus service quality on the perception of passengers
Nov-2015
Study analyses data from 512 questionnaires conducted in Belfast to determine the influence that perceived bus quality has upon the perceptions of both current and potential users. Research identifies 11 significant indicators that are reported to have a significant influence on the perception of bus users. The study uses these indicators to suggest optimisations that could be made to improve quality of bus services with the perceptions of current and potential users.
AI-based neural network models for bus passenger demand forecasting using smartcard data
May-2022
Study intends to improve short -term forecasting of public transport demand, using AI-based deep learning models for prediction of bus passenger demands based on real patronage data obtained from the smartcard ticketing system in Melbourne. Study found that the models were able to predict passenger demand with over 90% accuracy.
Integrated transport planning: The ‘Rehabilitation’ of a contested concept in UK bus reforms
May-2019
Study makes the case against policies of austerity and competition which have been applied to the UK's local public transport systems. The study urges for greater coordination within the sector to tackle social, environmental, financial and sustainability issues.
An ideal journey: making bus travel more desirable
Apr-2016
Study exploring the ways people make use of their time whilst on buses, and how the knowledge can be used to make bus travel more appealing and drive modal shift away from private cars. Study combines a 840 person survey of bus users in Bristol, with an analysis of online discussions and focus groups.
Bus passengers’ priorities for improvement
Feb-2020
Study into what bus passengers consider to be important for improving buses. Key areas were: Buses arriving on time, buses going to more places, value for money, faster journey times, tackling antisocial behaviour and improving passenger information.
Improving public transport through machine learning influence flow analysis (MIFA): Southern England bus case study
Apr-2025
Paper introduces a Machine Learning Influence Flow Analysis framework intended to identify key influencers of public transport usage. Study finds that easy payments, e-ticketing and mobile applications can substantially improve public transport service. Study recommends making use of smart ticketing systems and contactless payments to enable more efficient allocation of resources, resulting in a more streamlined service that encourages increased ridership and improves user satisfaction.
Retaining bus riders: A lifecycle longitudinal analysis of behavioural status transitions from entry to exit
Jun-2024
Using smart card data, study aims to analyse user behaviour to determine how users may begin to transition away from bus user. Study notes that users first decrease travel frequency before transitioning to irregular travel patterns. Study recommends retention policies such as tiered usage incentives and personalised communication strategies, aimed at different stages of the user life cycle.
Demographic disparities, service efficiency, safety and user satisfaction in public bus transit system: A survey-based case study in the City of Charlotte, NC
Dec-2024
Study concerning attitudes towards service limitations, safety concerns and technological improvements through a demographic lens. The research finds that East Charlotte residents and women face limited routes and longer wait times, black and East Charlotte residents have higher concerns about safety, there are privacy concerns among wealthier and infrequent users and there is strong preference for technological improvements, especially among infrequent users.
Can transit apps boost ridership? An empirical study in San Antonio, Texas
May-2025
Study investigates the impact of a mobile app on bus ridership in San Antonio, Texas. Study used random effect regression models to analyse the transit app influence on ridership between 2015 and 2019, accounting for various alternative ridership influences such as fare changes, route characteristics, weather, socioeconomic conditions and the price of petrol. Research found that the app had a positive impact on ridership for infrequent routes, but had less of an impact on frequent services.
Current practices and emerging trends of transit apps for fixed-route bus services in the U.S.
Jul-2023
Study providing and overview of transit apps used by various transit agencies in the United States. The researchers conducted interviews with 21 transport industry leaders, and synthesized perceived benefits and costs to transit apps. The study identifies five existing business models and emerging trends of transit apps and aims to improve transit app knowledge and provide practical recommendations for future improvements.
The value of the bus to society
Oct-2016
Report advocating for policy and investment in bus transport, aiming to demonstrate the societal improvements it can induce. The report uses research from KPMG and the Institute from Transport Studies, which claims that for every £1 of investment in local bus services, £7 can be delivered in net economic benefit. Furthermore, the research notes the existing benefit buses provide, such as: being the primary mode of accessing city centres, getting 3.5 million people into work and allowing for the creation of more than £64bn worth of goods and services.
Maximising the benefits of local bus services
Jul-2020
Report presents new analysis into how to improve the economic, environmental and social value derived from bus services. The report suggests that with £3bn (£1bn from the zero-emission vehicles, £2bn from the government's 2020 grant for public transport improvements) services could be improved so that areas which are currently falling behind could meet the same patronage levels as the current best-performing areas.
Building a world class bus system for Britain
May-2016
Report containing a variety of recommendations towards making significant improvements to Britain's bus services. Report ultimately recommends: requiring local transport authorities (LTAs) to make improvements to bus services, giving LTAs to re-regulate bus services, to encourage franchising agreements, to encourage efficient and fair industrial relations, to allow the creation of competitive municipal bus providers, to expand the role of LTAs, and to improve bus funding via increased spending, streamlining and devolution.
The 'True Value' of local bus services
Jul-2017
Study considering the value for money of local bus services, evaluating types of bus intervention (i.e. concessionary use, bus service operator grant) to determine, using a consistent framework, an assessment of these policies from a environmental, social and economic value perspective. Report concludes that investment in bus services provides significant value, both for other road users, and wider communities. Additionally, the report advocates for investment in interventions which improve the attractiveness of public transport via fare reductions or service improvements.
Factors affecting local bus demand and potential for increase
Mar-2021
A study in the factors that have impacted local bus demand, also looks into how these could increase demand. Factors investigated are: fares, service frequencies, journey time, car ownership and use, competing or complementary relationships with other modes and overall user experience. The report also looks into three case studies in Wales.
We need fare-free buses! It’s time to raise our sights
Mar-2018
Policy proposal advocating for fare-free buses, funded by a public transport payroll levy. The paper runs through a variety of case studies showcasing the feasibility of fareless public transport. Suggests that funding this proposal would be highly feasible as public money already accounts for 40% of bus operator revenue.
Getting free passholders back on buses
Jul-2023
Report into how older and disabled free bus pass holders may be encouraged to use buses, conducted in the context of the significant drop in concessionary use that occurred post-pandemic. The report suggests two possible reasons for this decline. The first is that concessionary users are simply getting out less due to the cost of living crisis and high street closures. The second suggests that the decline is patronage is due to a decline in bus services. The report claims that coronavirus plays a limited factor in dissuading bus use, with only 7% concerned about catching the virus due to using the bus.